Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of taskagnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally-trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

This section contains additional details on the object specifications. As mentioned in Section 3, we rely on the PB language to define the structure for each object type that we would like to handle with our model. Our framework supports all basic constructions of the language including nested messages and oneofclauses. For example, in Listing 1b, we can see that a generic Objectcan be either an entityor a constraint. We also use oneoffor objects that may appear in several mutually exclusive configurations (e.g., CircleArcEntityrepresents both arcs and closed circles and for the latter which it does not make sense to specify end points). We handle such constructions by injecting an additional token with the discrete value set to the index of the active field.

Unsupervised learning of structured predictors has been a long standing pursuit in machine learning. Recently a conditional random field auto-encoder has been proposed in a two-layer setting, allowing latent structured representation to be automatically inferred. Aside from being nonconvex, it also requires the demanding inference of normalization. In this paper, we develop a convex relaxation of two-layer conditional model which captures latent structure and estimates model parameters, jointly and optimally. We further expand its applicability by resorting to a weaker form of inference--maximum a-posteriori. The flexibility of the model is demonstrated on two structures based on total unimodularity--graph matching and linear chain. Experimental results confirm the promise of the method.

Accurate imputation of missing data is critical to downstream machine learning performance. We formulate missing data imputation as a risk minimisation problem, which highlights a covariate shift between the observed and unobserved data distributions. This covariate shift induced bias is not accounted for by popular imputation methods and leads to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we derive theoretically valid importance weights that correct for the induced distributional bias. Furthermore, we propose a novel imputation algorithm that jointly estimates both the importance weights and imputation models, enabling bias correction throughout the imputation process. Empirical results across benchmark datasets show reductions in root mean squared error and Wasserstein distance of up to 7% and 20%, respectively, compared to otherwise identical unweighted methods.

In this document we provide additional details and experiments.